Gratitude in the Markets: What Investors Can Be Thankful For

Gratitude in the Markets: What Investors Can Be Thankful For

November 18, 2025 

Kara Murphy, CFA



Resilience in the Face of Tariffs 

In April, the new Trump administration announced an extensive set of tariffs. In response to the sharp shift away from nearly 100 years of lower barriers to trade, stocks plummeted. In a five-day period from April 2 to April 8, the S&P 500 fell by more than 11%, extending losses that had started months earlier. 

As the S&P 500 neared bear market territory, the administration paused a large share of the tariffs for 90 days. The pause prompted a rally in stocks even more virulent than the recent decline. The market has returned about 15% so far this year, which follows two consecutive years with returns over 20%. 

S&P 500 Year-To-Date Performance (Jan 1 = 100)

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and not subject to fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Source: Kestra Investment Management with data from FactSet. Performance data as of November 17th, 2025.


Excellent Earnings Performance 


For the fourth consecutive quarter, companies in the S&P 500 are set to grow earnings by a double-digit percentage. With 92% of the index companies reporting results, the earnings growth rate for Q3 2025 is 13.1%. Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, corporate profitability continues to provide the narrative to sustain the bull rally. 

Earnings results across the market have beaten on both the top and bottom lines, with 82% of companies beating earnings per share (EPS) expectations and 76% surprising to the upside on revenue numbers. While the market may be expensive on a valuation basis, companies are doing their part to sustain lofty prices. 

S&P 500 Earnings Results Relative to Estimates: Q3 2025

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: Kestra Investment Management with data from FactSet 


Accommodative Monetary Policy

While the Federal Reserve has always been an important driver of economic growth and market, politics have kept it in the news more than usual this year. Uncharacteristically high levels of dissension on the committee, calls for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to be fired from the President, and a perceived lack of independence have led to increased scrutiny of the country’s central bank. 

Outside of political influences, policymakers have had to balance a weakening labor market with persistent inflation. Despite these conflicting signals, the Fed lowered the Fed funds rate on two separate occasions to 3.75-4.00%. This decision will help with the cost of borrowing for both consumers and businesses and is expected to be followed by additional cuts. 

 

Resilience, Profits, and Rate Cuts: A Full Plate of Gratitude 

 

As we gather with loved ones this Thanksgiving, it’s worth remembering that investing isn’t just about numbers on a screen, it’s about building for the future. We’re committing to the things that matter most: security for our families, opportunities for future generations, and the freedom to live life on our terms. 

 

Invest wisely, live richly and happy Thanksgiving, 

Kara 



 
 The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and may not necessarily reflect those held by Kestra Advisor Services Holdings C, Inc., d/b/a Kestra Holdings, and its subsidiaries, including, but not limited to, Kestra Advisory Services, LLC, Kestra Investment Services, LLC, Kestra Private Wealth Services, and Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC. The material is for informational purposes only. It represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. It is not guaranteed by any entity for accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was created to provide accurate and reliable information on the subjects covered but should not be regarded as a complete analysis of these subjects. It is not intended to provide specific legal, tax or other professional advice. The services of an appropriate professional should be sought regarding your individual situation. Kestra Advisor Services Holdings C, Inc., d/b/a Kestra Holdings, and its subsidiaries, including, but not limited to, Kestra Advisory Services, LLC, Kestra Investment Services, LLC, Kestra Private Wealth Services, and Bluespring Wealth Partners, LLC, do not offer tax or legal advice. 

Money with Murphy: The Popularity of Private Credit: Wall Street’s Latest Trending Asset Class

November 13, 2025
“When you see one cockroach, there’s probably more,” said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in an Oct. 14 comment referring to cracks he’s seeing in the banking sector. The, now, infamous cockroach quote sparked important debate about the $1.6 trillion private credit market, which has grown 300% over the past decade while delivering strong risk-adjusted returns. Understanding both the opportunities and risks of this evolving asset class is essential for investors looking to tap into one of the market’s most compelling areas of growth.

Common End-of-Year Tax Client Considerations

By Michael Steinbeck • October 29, 2025
The end of the year offers a chance not only for personal reflection but also for thoughtful tax planning. As portfolios shift with another strong market, investors are well served to consider if their portfolio is still on track—both from a risk and tax standpoint. Let’s consider a few key scenarios that can be tackled heading into year end. Another Year, Another Stock That Did Better Than We Expected Each year, a few standout stocks capture attention with spectacular returns—think names like Palantir, Oracle, Netflix, GE Aerospace, Uber, Johnson & Johnson, and Intel have outpaced the market this year. Holding one can feel like hitting the jackpot, but big winners often bring a hidden cost: concentration risk. When one position grows too large, it can expose investors to outsized drawdowns and throw a portfolio off balance. After such strong gains, it may be time to rebalance—locking in success while keeping long-term goals on track and the right amount of risk in a portfolio. Capital Gains Distributions and Mutual Fund Outflows Mutual funds have many strengths, but tax efficiency isn’t one of them. They can distribute capital gains even when shareholders haven’t sold any shares, creating “phantom gains” and unexpected tax bills. A major driver of these gains is investor redemptions—when outflows force funds to sell holdings. Eight of the last ten years have seen net outflows from mutual funds in aggregate, and 2025 appears to be following suit. While not every fund with outflows will make distributions, the risk rises as redemptions increase. If your mutual funds are seeing outflows, it may be wise to rebalance toward more tax-efficient options like ETFs before your mutual fund pays out capital gains.

A Rising Tide: Third Quarter Market Review and Outlook

October 21, 2025
Key Takeaways The broad U.S. stock market climbed to new highs fueled by strong corporate earnings, especially among technology companies. Broad-based gains pushed all S&P 500 sectors into positive territory for the year-to-date period. The bond market rallied as well, buoyed by a dip in interest rates across maturities. The U.S. economy continued to show resilience despite lingering inflation and trade uncertainty. While the job market is weakening, unemployment remains low by historical standards. For much of this year, uncertainty around trade, fiscal and monetary policy ran high. In the third quarter, however, investors got answers to some key policy questions with the passage of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the Federal Reserve’s resumption of the rate-cutting cycle it paused nearly a year ago. They also got welcome news on corporate earnings, which helped ease (but not erase) worries about the impact of historically high tariffs. The S&P 500 index posted strong earnings growth , beating analysts’ expectations by a healthy margin. The index marked its nineth consecutive quarter of positive earnings. Earnings growth, greater policy clarity and other tailwinds drove U.S. stocks to new highs. The third quarter marked the first quarter this year the U.S. stock market outperformed international equities markets, which have been buoyed by a sharp decline in the value of the dollar. Read on for a closer look at third-quarter trends and our take on the near-term outlook.
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