The Iran conflict has led to a spike in market volatility, especially in the oil markets where consumers are feeling the pain at the pump. In this week’s Money with Murphy, Kara shares why the United States is uniquely positioned to weather the oil shock and the surprisingly resilient performance of the market in the aftermath of global conflicts.
Will this be the year the initial public offering (IPO) market finally gets its mojo back? After sinking in 2022, more companies have been indicating an interest in going public, encouraged by improving market conditions and renewed investor appetite for growth. That said, the backdrop isn’t without complications. Recent market volatility tied to rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East is a reminder that the IPO window can open (and close) quickly. As such, expectations for a rebound in IPO activity come with an important caveat: timing will matter. In this week’s Markets in a Minute, we explore the outlook for IPOs, the implications for investors and risks to the forecast. Unicorns Take Flight An estimated 200 to 230 companies could go public this year, potentially raising $40 to $60 billion, according to research from Renaissance Capital. That would bring activity closer to the 20-year average of roughly 250 IPOs annually. By comparison, just 71 companies went public in 2022, raising about $8 billion. Other forecasts for this year are also bullish. Goldman Sachs , for instance, expects total IPO proceeds to quadruple to a record $160 billion. Software and healthcare companies are expected to account for the largest share of IPOs by number. However, offerings by a relatively small group of late-stage technology and artificial intelligence (AI) firms are likely to generate the lion’s share of total proceeds, according to the investment bank. Among the highly valued, privately held billion-dollar companies (or so-called unicorns) expected to go public this year are Elon Musk’s SpaceX, artificial intelligence firm Anthropic, and ChatGPT maker OpenAI Group. By some accounts, SpaceX’s IPO could be the largest ever, potentially raising $30 billion, which would surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.
Higher Oil, Higher Stakes: A New Test for Consumers and the Fed
As the final earnings season of 2025 draws to a close, companies in the S&P 500 Index have demonstrated strong earnings momentum. According to FactSet, the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the benchmark is 14.2% as of February 27th, with almost all companies in the S&P 500 having reported fourth quarter earnings. Another strong set of results makes it five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Earnings strength was broad based across the index with all 11 sectors reporting positive growth relative to the previous year. Standouts included Information Technology (IT) and Industrials, with year-over-year growth rates of 34% and 27%, respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary have been laggards, though both sectors grew earnings year over year by 0.4%.
Recent U.S. military action in Iran has raised questions about geopolitical risk and market stability. In a special Market Flash, Kara examines how investors are responding. While markets have been volatile, historical patterns suggest these periods are shorter than anticipated.
Mega-cap tech stumbled hard in Q1, but diversification came through. Kara Murphy breaks down the quarter’s surprises—from market shakeups to rising trade tensions—and why the “boring stuff” might just be your portfolio’s MVP.
Small and Mid-Caps Are Re-Entering the Conversation
Beyond Big Tech: The Global Surge in AI Adoption and Implications for Investors
Key Takeaways ETFs are no longer just passive, low-cost vehicles. Active management, leverage, and complex strategies now define a significant and growing portion of the ETF universe. Choice and innovation come with tradeoffs. While product variety has increased, so have fees and structural complexity—raising the stakes for fund selection. Advisor due diligence is more critical than ever. In an ETF landscape with growing complexity, maintaining portfolio discipline and aligning exposures with client objectives requires deep and consistent analysis. The ETF Market is Structurally Shifting For years, investing in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) meant investing passively in an index. ETF investors bought portfolios designed to capture the returns of an index, like the widely followed S&P 500, by matching the holdings of the index. This approached allowed portfolios to replicate the performance of the index, but gave up the prospect of outperformance. This is in contrast to active management, which attempts to outperform an index. That convention reflected reality: regulatory and structural constraints made it difficult (often impractical) to deliver active management within an ETF wrapper. As a result, mutual funds remained the primary vehicle for active strategies. That paradigm shifted in 2019, when updated rules opened the door for active management in ETFs. Asset managers moved quickly to capitalize, and the market responded. With more than 5,000 ETFs now trading, surpassing the total number of publicly listed stocks, the investment landscape has become far more crowded than it was a decade ago. New product launches and asset flows reveal that ETFs have become the investment vehicle of choice, reflecting their success in lowering costs, improving tax efficiency, and broadening access to markets.
After years of record-breaking investment from the hyperscalers, 2026 may finally bring a shift. New incentives stemming from the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) could push companies outside of technology into the much-needed CapEx boom. In this episode of Money with Murphy, Kara explores why the broadening out of business investment is critical for sustained productivity, earnings growth, and stock market performance.
Key Takeaways The S&P 500 posted its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, although its 17% gain for 2025 was short of the 20% gain in the previous two years International markets returned to prominence, with emerging markets like South Korea, Mexico, and Brazil along with developed markets in the United Kingdom and Japan outperforming the US A variety of policies will drive market performance in 2026, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and tariffs The bull market run remained resilient for a third consecutive year. Despite significant external shocks stemming from tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and growing concerns about the sustainability of capital expenditures for AI, investors who stayed the course were rewarded. In a volatile start to the year, the S&P 500 plummeted 19% in the first quarter only to finish the year up by nearly 17%. It’s only the fourth time since 1926 that the benchmark index has returned greater than 15% in three consecutive years. A growing economy and enthusiasm about the possibilities of AI more than compensated for significant headwinds. While the market’s momentum is backed by strong fundamentals of double-digit earnings growth for a second consecutive year, valuations have become stretched to levels not seen since the dot-com bubble. In addition, 2025 marked the year when international markets took leadership as the MSCI Emerging Markets index posted a 33% gain, highlighted by outstanding years in South Korea, Brazil, and Mexico. Developed markets excluding the United States also performed well, with the United Kingdom and Japan posting returns of 33% and 25%, respectively. With another excellent year of market returns behind us, it’s worth asking if the bull market can reach a fourth year? If so, where do we need to direct our attention? In this week’s Markets in a Minute, we unpack where potential opportunities may lie. A Broadening Out of the Rally? The 3-year bull market has been heavily driven by artificial intelligence broadly, and the Magnificent Seven specifically. However, in 2025, only two stocks in the esteemed Mag 7 group (Alphabet, Nvidia) outperformed the S&P 500. While Communications Services and Information Technology remained the top performing sectors, strength in Industrials, Utilities, and Financials indicate there are promising returns elsewhere. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 posted a gain in 2025, and forward earnings for the coming year are encouraging. For instance, the Materials sector is expected to grow earnings by 23% and Industrials by 15%.
In 2025, financial markets were tested but responded with resilience, posting a third consecutive year of double-digit gains. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 saw gains but only two stocks in the Magnificent Seven beat the index’s 17% return. Earnings growth kept up pace proving the market’s momentum was backed by strong fundamentals. As we look at 2026, we will be monitoring continued political uncertainty, heightened valuations, and the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures. In this week’s Money with Murphy, Kara walks through the highlights of 2025 and what to watch for in the months ahead.
